Posts Tagged ‘Denver’

I can’t be the only one who is confused by real estate data. Every few days, there’s another news story about with data that purports to prove how the real estate scene is getting better, getting worse, or staying the same.

Denver, where I operate, is usually said to be faring better than most of the rest of the country. As of November 2009, this city was one of only four cities with a positive gain since November 2008 on the in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The worst among the 20 cities covered were showing declines in the 15 to 25 percent range.

Today, however, a story in Forbes lists Denver among the “new capitals of the housing crisis.” It cites data from Altos Research, a Mountain View, Calif.-based real-estate research firm, suggesting that “the Mile High city is taking a turn for the worse.” That firm provides “real-time” data to Forbes.

In July 2009, it says, list prices in Denver fell 0.5% from the year before—the first decline since 2008. The slump has since worsened, it says. In January, year-over-year asking prices were down 3%, to $368,870. Fair enough. But that July data today is eight months old. And it comes from a firm whose claim to fame is “real time” reporting? Huh?

Furthermore, we all know that average list prices are pushed around by all kinds of factors. Maybe the owners of lower-priced are suddenly more interested in selling.

I don’t recommend ignoring the news. But at the same time, I refuse to take it too seriously. In all the crosswinds of good and bad trends, it’s impossible to know which way things are going.

For investors, the strategy is to continue to look for deals with a margin of safety. For homeowners, the advice is similar. Do your best to read the macro picture, but then do what makes most sense for your situation today.

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